1990年12月14日台湾强震的预报判据

本文运用福建省沿海气象要素的异常变化,作台湾省的中、短期地震预报,取得了成功的效果。采用长乐历年各月14时最低气压的距平值,作台湾省未来4～7个月内出现强震的预报依据,并采用热异常进行短临跟踪。当秋冬季节连续4d 长乐、福州、台北的气温均比广州累计高出10℃时,预报未来1～5d 台湾省出现7级强震。又根据近百年来台湾发生的强震,统计其活动季节,得到近20年来7级地震发生的时间,绝大部分在9～12月。     

Numerical Analysis of Wave Forces on Arbitrarily Shaped Multi-Pillars Over Varying Topography

The modified hybrid element method (MHEM) is utilized to predict and analyze wave forces on arbitrarily shaped multiple bodies. This method can be applied to waves of all water depths, i. e. shallow, intermediate, and deep waters, on slowly varying seabed. The MHEM employs the ICCG method to save CPU and storage, thus the computation of wave forces for large multi-body systems can be carried out on microcomputers. Numerical results of the present method are compared with experimental data and other solutions. It is shown that the MHEM provides more accurate solutions of the wave forces than other numerical methods do. Therefore, the methodology presented herein can be used in the design of coastal and ocean structures.     

Static Analysis of Collision Strength of Offshore Platform

In this paper a numerical analysis method combining FEM incemental technique with limit analysis concept is proposed for the study of the static strength of offshore platform in collision. Large deformation and plasticity are accounted for and the limit yield surface expressed by generalized stress for a tubular section is derived. The modified stiffness matrix of space beam element is formulated by Plastic Node Method. The buckling behavior of beam columns can also be taken into account. It can trace the generation of plastic hinges during loading and finally the ultimate strength of offshore platform against collision is obtained.     

新世纪大洋钻探"三角鼎立"中的欧洲联合体

欧洲为了与美国、日本在IODP中处于同等重要的地位，成立了由ODP成员参加的欧洲大洋钻探科学指导委员会（ESCOD）和JEODI组织，并开展了IODP之前的一系列准备活动。在其中的APLACON会议上，论证了IODP中第三类特定钻探平台的必要性，讨论了该类平台在某些研究范围内的重要作用，包括研究地球历史中的极端气候（北极海区）、重建白垩纪－第三纪的水文地理学、气候的快速变化、沉积盆地形成与过程以及固体地球过程等。     

Fuzzy Optimum Model of Semi-Structural Decision for Lectotype Optimization of Offshore Platforms

In the process of concept design of offshore platforms, it is necessary to select the best from feasible alternatives through comparison and filter. The criterion set, used to evaluate and select the satisfying alternative, consists of many qualitative and quantitative factors. Therefore, the selection is a problem of multicriteria and semi- structural decision- making. Different from traditional methods in semi- structural decision- making, a new framework and methodology is presented in this paper for evaluation of offshore platform alternatives. First, the criterion set is established for the evaluation of alternatives. Next, the approach is studied to construct the relative membership degree matrix, in which both qualitative and quantitative factors are consistent with the uniform calculating standard. And then a new weight-assessing method is developed for calculation of the weights based on the relative membership degree matrix. Finally, a multi-hierarchy fuzzy optimum model is adopted to select t     

莱州湾温带风暴潮预报研究

本文依据莱州湾羊角沟、夏营两站建国以来的风暴增水资料，对莱州湾建国后发生的风暴潮进行了统计分析，并探讨了温带风暴潮产生的物理机制，此外还对莱州湾温带风暴增水以及诱发增水的天气形势进行了分析分类。在此基础上建立了莱州湾温带风暴潮统计预报方法，并在作业预报中对模型进行了检验，取得较为理想的效果。     

Ice-Induced Fatigue Analysis by Spectral Approach for Offshore Jacket Platforms with Ice-Breaking Cones

The spectral methods and ice-induced fatigue analysis are discussed based on Miner's linear cumulative fatigue hypothesis and S-N curve data.According to the long-term data of full-scale tests on the platforms in the Bohai Sea,the ice force spectrum of conical structures and the fatigue environmental model are established.Moreover,the finite element model of JZ20-2MSW platform,an example of ice-induced fatigue analysis,is built with ANSYS software.The mode analysis and dynamic analysis in frequency domain under all kinds of ice fatigue work conditions are carried on,and the fatigue life of the structure is estimated in detail.The methods in this paper can be helpful in ice-induced fatigue analysis of ice-resistant platforms.     

深海观测平台技术

介绍了深海观测平台的重要性,以及国内外在此项技术上的发展现状,并提出了一套深海观测平台技术的设计构想以及对于未来发展方向的建议和展望。     

Calibration of LRFD Format for Steel Jacket Offshore Platforms in China Offshore Area （ 1 ） ： Statistical Parameters of Loads and Resistances

1 .IntroductionThe structural design method has evolvedfromthe workingstress method,damage stage methodtolimit state method.The more recent probabilisticlimit state design method,whichis based onreliabili-tytheory,has beengenerallyacceptedinthe designcode…     

Neural network for wave forecasting among multi-stations

Unlike in the open sea, the use of wind information for forecasting waves may encounter more ambiguous uncertainties in the coastal or harbor area due to the influence of complicated geometric configurations. Thus this paper attempts to forecast the waves based on learning the characteristics of observed waves, rather than the use of the wind information. This is reported in this paper by the application of the artificial neural network (ANN), in which the back-propagation algorithm is employed in the learning process for obtaining the desired results. This model evaluated the interconnection weights among multi-stations based on the previous short-term data, from which a time series of waves at a station can be generated for forecasting or data supplement based on using the neighbor stations data. Field data are used for testing the applicability of the ANN model. The results show that the ANN model performs well for both wave forecasting and data supplement when using a short-term observed wave data.